1) I’m going for a blogging schedule of at least once a week this year. No guarantees on content, and it’ll probably get politics-heavy as 2012 drags on. And there’ll be some maniacal cackling and / or pleas for a swift death after December 21st, but disregard that.
2) Explain to me why we care about the Iowa Caucuses again? I mean, aside from the fact that the only people who are going to participate are the hard-core wonks from either side, a quick look at their record seems to suggest that someone ought to just build a giant coin-flipper in the middle of downtown Des Moines. Seriously, when there’s not an incumbent running for re-election, it’s a 50% accuracy rate at best.
Actually, now that I jot down the results, in races where there was no Democratic incumbent, Iowa picked the eventual nominee 4 out of 6 times. In races with no Republican incumbent, Iowa Republicans picked the eventual nominee 2 out of 5.
So what does this mean? It means stop encouraging these people. And by “these people,” I mean the candidates, the media, and the self-absorbed partisans who participate in this charade in the belief that what they’re doing actually has any influence.
Oh, and just for fun: the New Hampshire Primaries are only slightly more predictive, but only for the GOP. In the same races as above, the Democratic NH winner went on to be the nominee in 3 out of 6 years, and the Republican did so in 3 out of 5.
Man, if I’m this cynical now, just wait until things really get rolling…